Global: e-commerce retail sales CAGR 2025-2030| Statista

According to recent industry calculations, India's compound annual growth rate until 2030 is the highest among the top 20 e-commerce markets worldwide. The Indian e-commerce market is currently valued at 125 billion U.S. dollars. Japan and Indonesia are also among the fastest-growing e-commerce markets globally, with CAGRs of over 7.7 percent.

How long will the United States be the global e-commerce leader?

By 2026, the American online retail market value is forecast to surpass the 1.2 trillion U.S. dollar mark. That makes the U.S. e-commerce market the largest in the world. The Chinese e-commerce market will surpass a value of one trillion U.S. dollars in 2025, and is forecast to approach 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars in 2027, closing in on the United States.

Different KPIs lead to different insights

The Chinese and American online shopping markets are neck-and-neck, depending on the KPI selected. For instance, the average revenue per user is a useful KPI to determine the penetration rate of e-commerce in a country. For the U.S., the ARPU stands at roughly 3,950 U.S. dollars as of 2025. In China, this value is much lower, at less than 1,000 U.S. dollars.

Retail e-commerce sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2025 to 2030, by country

Characteristic	Compound annual growth rate
India	11.77%
Japan	9.67%
Indonesia	7.75%
Turkey	7.47%
China	7.41%
Worldwide average	6.29%
Mexico	6.14%
Spain	5.9%
United States	5.59%
Italy	5.33%
Thailand	5.11%
Germany	4.98%
Canada	4.9%
Brazil	4.85%
Poland	4.64%
South Korea	4.54%
Netherlands	3.93%
United Kingdom	3.93%
France	3.76%
Russia	3.51%
Australia	3.39%

Loading statistic...

Download

Source

Show detailed source information?

Already a member?

Sources

Use Ask Statista Research Service

Release date

August 2025

More information

Region

Worldwide

Survey time period

2025

Supplementary notes

The countries selected are the top 20 markets ranked by total e-commerce revenue in 2025.

Data provided by Statista Market Insights are estimates.

The eCommerce market comprises the sale of physical goods via a digital channel to a private end consumer (B2C). This definition encompasses purchases via desktop computers (including notebooks and laptops) as well as purchases via mobile devices (e.g., smartphones and tablets). The following are not included in the eCommerce market: digitally distributed services (see instead: eServices), digital media downloads or streams, digitally distributed goods in B2B markets, and the digital purchase or resale of used, defective, or repaired goods (reCommerce and C2C). All monetary figures refer to the annual gross revenue and do not factor in shipping costs.

All figures are estimate. A detailed methodology can be found in the Statista Market Insights.

Citation formats